Planned uncertainty

I love an oxymoron. My current favourite is ‘planned uncertainty’.
 
Yeah, I know. How can you possibly plan when things are unknown, uncertain?
 
But you can.
You can plan your best guess and hold that plan lightly.
Knowing something will change, even when you don’t know what.
You can have backup plans: a Plan B for when Plan A goes down the drain.
You can build inflexion points into your plan, where you can review, reset, and pivot.
 
It’s one of the hardest aspects of Agile for newcomers to get their heads around.
Yet we all do it. All the time. Almost without thinking.
 
This holiday season is a prime example.

We plan our car journey.
All the way or just to the train station.
We know our destination. We know our preferred route.
We might even plan a detour or two if we think traffic might be bad.
But it would be unimaginable to plan exactly when we’ll change lanes to overtake.

Too much planning creates a strait jacket that’s difficult and expensive to escape when you need to.
Too little, and you’ll wander around aimlessly. Chaotically.
Plan for uncertainty instead.

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